Philadelphia Marathon Prediction Calculators

My plan for the Philly Marathon this Sunday is to run conservatively, especially in light of breaking my toe a scant month ago.  I had wanted to run around 3:10 before the stupid move of breaking my piggy.  I felt I was on target to do it.  My training was going well.  So I tempered my ambition to run something more like a 3:20 this Sunday.  I feel that is pretty within my reach even though I lack long runs, and running mileage in general.  I filled the void with good cycling mileage.  I am aerobically an animal ready for big things, but lack the training specificity.

Enter the Race Prediction Calculator.  There are a ton of them on this here interwebs.  Based on the 5K I ran last weekend @ 19:20, most of them predict I can run 3:10 or better.  Nothing like getting my hopes up and messing up my mental plan.
Running Times predicts a 3:09:09 @ 7:12 pace
McMillan Running predicts a 3:08:29 also @ 7:12 pace  (what?)
Marathon Guide predicts a 3:08:03
Running for Fitness predicts a 3:05:13  !!
This little applet predicts a 3:04:49  !!!

Wow - should I abridge my plans?  Whom should I listen to?  Perhaps my own body in the first few miles...  Feel good: attempt 7:12.  Feel not so good: attempt 7:37's for a 3:20 as planned.  We shall see.

6.5 Miles Eight Days Out from Breaking Toe

I ran 6.5 miles today on the Columbia Trail.  When I tested my toe with runs this past weekend, it seemed like it was not ready to run yet.  But those tests were after cycling.  Today's run was fresh, and I figured out that I should tape the toe, with support under the curved part of it.  I used a cotton ball, legthened out, and curved into a U shape under the toe and around the sides.  I then taped around my big toe and third toe.  Put the whole thing into a sock and stuck it into new Brooks Cascadia 3 trail shoes.  Sorry, I didn't spare you the photos this time!  Here is my awesome tape job.

Sparing You The Photo

I did not take a photo of the red misshapen toe.  But it is red, and misshapen - trust me.  I have an unrelated break in the skin on the bottom of the toe, and it is oozing some of the fluid build up inside the toe from the break.  I am spending time with a flexible gel ice pack and elevation.  Rode my Dawes single speed about 10 miles with little pain.  The best shoes to wear when your toe is broken are Teva river sandals.  Wore them to work today and eventually will try running in them.  I learned that during my last broken toe adventure.

Stupid Move #2

Stupid move #1: About two months ago I broke my left middle toe while running in VFF's on a trail. I did it by kicking a root on an easy trail. Proceeded to finish the run, about 5 more miles. By using lots of ice and active rest, I nursed the toe to 90% in 3 weeks, 100% in six, been training very well. Ran a little and rode my bike a lot during recovery time, so I came out of the injury in better cardio shape than I went into it.

Stupid move #2: Today I raced an 8K XC race barefoot. It was muddy. Warm up was fine for no shoes. Didn't factor in that with lots of people running the course it would deteriorate, and that I would be running 6:30/mile rather than 8:30/mile. Half way through I slipped & fell going downhill, which was fine - slid right back up and continued running. A few hundred yards later, running down another hill and curving right, my right foot slipped sideways & forward with all my weight and momentum concentrated on my forefoot. In a hundredth of a second, I felt my 2nd toe bend too far, kinda under my 3rd, and feeling a sharp pain I kinda knew it broke. I finished the race at about 8 minute pace when I should have placed in my AG. Should have worn the spikes that I left in my car...

Philly Marathon is exactly 4 weeks away. Wasn't going to run it barefoot - was going for a post-40's PR for myself - now I'm gonna have to depend on my bike again to keep me fit, but the PR might be down the tubes!

Proud Dad

Son's first XC meet of the season: The race was fine, but this is more important: I am there barefoot, and intend to run cool-down with his high school team. Without prompting him to do this, I notice my son's XC flats are off and he is prepared to run the cool-down barefoot.  Now, as a good dad, I don't make a big deal out of this for fear of ruining it.  We're just chatting and being cool; and then spontaniously three other guys decide to run the cool-down barefoot!

Before we start the cool down, coach says something like, "Any of you guys cut your foot I'm gonna stick it in your eye," or something equally ridiculous.. .

We ran it barefoot, all grass. They guys liked it. All eyes and feet intact.

My adidas Spam Today...

my adidas spam today led me to a link for these adidas Ambition Power Bounce running shoes, and I thought how funny it is that anyone would actually believe this and buy these for $130 bucks!