My plan for the Philly Marathon this Sunday is to run conservatively, especially in light of breaking my toe a scant month ago. I had wanted to run around 3:10 before the stupid move of breaking my piggy. I felt I was on target to do it. My training was going well. So I tempered my ambition to run something more like a 3:20 this Sunday. I feel that is pretty within my reach even though I lack long runs, and running mileage in general. I filled the void with good cycling mileage. I am aerobically an animal ready for big things, but lack the training specificity.
Enter the Race Prediction Calculator. There are a ton of them on this here interwebs. Based on the 5K I ran last weekend @ 19:20, most of them predict I can run 3:10 or better. Nothing like getting my hopes up and messing up my mental plan.
Running Times predicts a 3:09:09 @ 7:12 pace
McMillan Running predicts a 3:08:29 also @ 7:12 pace (what?)
Marathon Guide predicts a 3:08:03
Running for Fitness predicts a 3:05:13 !!
This little applet predicts a 3:04:49 !!!
Wow - should I abridge my plans? Whom should I listen to? Perhaps my own body in the first few miles... Feel good: attempt 7:12. Feel not so good: attempt 7:37's for a 3:20 as planned. We shall see.